Latest IC estimates are that Iran can hold out for about 2months. If the Strait remains closed, by that time the World and U.S. economies will be hanging on by their fingernails. Trump is lurching from one formula to another.
Trump is not the only one that does not understand Iran. This conflict is going to continue indefinitely because it is primarily driven by the hard-core Shia religious doctrine of many members of the IRGC. Jihad is the central concept. For most Islamists, Jihad simply refers to the personal battle to live up to the principles of Islam. For the hardcore, it means striving to enforce the rules (the Shia-specific rules in this case) across the entire would. The trouble Iran has been causing in the region ever since the ascendancy of the Ayatollah 47 years ago is a direct result of this concept. No one seems to be grasping this.
It may be that the United States is not the party most at fault for misjudging strategic intentions. Perhaps the designer of the plan is not Trump. Perhaps the situation is unfolding according to a design envisioned long ago by its Architekt. American leadership was fooled into doing this war.
The Russian writer Vladimir Rezhun, better known by his pen name Viktor Suvorov, advanced a controversial version of this idea in his book Icebreaker. Writing in the late 1980s, Suvorov argued that Stalin deliberately positioned the Soviet Union to benefit from Hitler’s invasion, allowing Operation Barbarossa to shatter the political and military resistance of Eastern Europe and thereby clear the way for Soviet domination. Wikipedia
Suvorov claimed that Stalin had been preparing for an offensive war in Europe for years, and that Hitler’s attack in June 1941 was effectively a pre‑emptive strike against an imminent Soviet assault. He pointed to Soviet military deployments, offensive-oriented equipment, and forward-positioned airfields as evidence of Stalin’s intentions.
His evidence was sparse and not academically exhaustive. But the proposition remains.
The closure of Hormuz was Stalin’s dream in wrecking the locomotive of capitalism, when the West’s appetite for oil was less so, and the USA was self-sustaining in energy.
Did Putin just find the White Paper and give it a whirl through his proxy?
I find this analysis to be nothing new. We already know this but so far no President had found the right formula. Trump is trying his. We will see.
Latest IC estimates are that Iran can hold out for about 2months. If the Strait remains closed, by that time the World and U.S. economies will be hanging on by their fingernails. Trump is lurching from one formula to another.
Look….you could start SO MANY SENTENCES with “Trump does not understand……”
I mean take your pick!
We could do this all day!
Trump is not the only one that does not understand Iran. This conflict is going to continue indefinitely because it is primarily driven by the hard-core Shia religious doctrine of many members of the IRGC. Jihad is the central concept. For most Islamists, Jihad simply refers to the personal battle to live up to the principles of Islam. For the hardcore, it means striving to enforce the rules (the Shia-specific rules in this case) across the entire would. The trouble Iran has been causing in the region ever since the ascendancy of the Ayatollah 47 years ago is a direct result of this concept. No one seems to be grasping this.
Trump does not understand schite outside the US
It may be that the United States is not the party most at fault for misjudging strategic intentions. Perhaps the designer of the plan is not Trump. Perhaps the situation is unfolding according to a design envisioned long ago by its Architekt. American leadership was fooled into doing this war.
The Russian writer Vladimir Rezhun, better known by his pen name Viktor Suvorov, advanced a controversial version of this idea in his book Icebreaker. Writing in the late 1980s, Suvorov argued that Stalin deliberately positioned the Soviet Union to benefit from Hitler’s invasion, allowing Operation Barbarossa to shatter the political and military resistance of Eastern Europe and thereby clear the way for Soviet domination. Wikipedia
Suvorov claimed that Stalin had been preparing for an offensive war in Europe for years, and that Hitler’s attack in June 1941 was effectively a pre‑emptive strike against an imminent Soviet assault. He pointed to Soviet military deployments, offensive-oriented equipment, and forward-positioned airfields as evidence of Stalin’s intentions.
His evidence was sparse and not academically exhaustive. But the proposition remains.
The closure of Hormuz was Stalin’s dream in wrecking the locomotive of capitalism, when the West’s appetite for oil was less so, and the USA was self-sustaining in energy.
Did Putin just find the White Paper and give it a whirl through his proxy?
He’s literally going to lose his mind over this.
What a mess.